Denton, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

859
FXUS64 KFWD 142300
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
600 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms are possible through this evening, mainly over
  Central and East Texas. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain may
  occur.

- Hot and humid conditions along with low storm chances can be
  expected through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1243 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025/
/Through Friday/

Mostly sunny skies will prevail today across North and Central
Texas as much of the region becomes placed beneath the subsident
side of a southeastward-progressing, mid-level shortwave trough.
Deeper moisture and a positive influence from the passing trough
will warrant at least 20-30% PoPs generally along/east of I-35 and
south of I-20 this afternoon. Brief, heavy downpours and isolated
gusty downburst winds will be the primary hazards. We may even see
a few echoes and high-based showers show up on radar this
afternoon near and just north of the I-20 corridor where a 700mb
convergence zone will settle. Some modest capping near 550-600mb
and nebulous synoptic-scale ascent will keep this activity short-
lived and generally insignificant. Otherwise, expect widespread
afternoon highs in the mid 90s with a very light southerly breeze.

High pressure aloft will become a bit more dominant by Friday,
bumping temperatures up a couple of degrees and constraining any
rain chances to our far southeast counties. Afternoon mixing will
likely keep much of the region just below Heat Advisory criteria
Friday afternoon. However, several higher humidity locations east
of I-35 and within the Metroplex may approach or exceed the
105-degree heat index mark. Thus, a Heat Advisory has been issued
for Friday afternoon for much of north-central and northeast
Texas.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1243 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025/
/Saturday and Beyond/

The upper ridge will settle over the Mississippi River Valley by
Saturday allowing for thunderstorm chances to creep back into the
forecast for Central Texas Saturday and Sunday afternoon. High
pressure will gradually shift back toward the Desert Southwest
early next week, enhancing north flow over the Southern Plains.
This pattern would offer better opportunities for more widespread
rain chances by midweek next week, so stay updated on the forecast
through the weekend.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

VFR conditions and south winds around 10 kts will prevail through
the period, with higher daytime gusts of 15-20 kts. Diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms have remained displaced from the
TAF sites today, and similar placement/coverage is expected again
tomorrow afternoon. There is a small chance for a brief MVFR
stratus intrusion at Waco in the morning, and a Tempo group has
been introduced to account for an hour or two of low cigs
beginning around 12z.

-Stalley

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  97  79  96  79 /  10  10   0  10   5
Waco                77  95  76  93  76 /  10  10   5  30  10
Paris               75  95  75  96  75 /  30  10   0  10   5
Denton              77  98  76  97  77 /  10  10   0   5   5
McKinney            77  96  77  96  77 /  10  10   0  10   5
Dallas              79  98  79  98  79 /  10  10   0  10   5
Terrell             75  96  75  96  76 /  10  10   0  10   5
Corsicana           77  97  77  97  77 /  20  10   0  20   5
Temple              75  96  75  94  74 /  20  10   5  40  10
Mineral Wells       75  98  75  96  75 /  10   0   0  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ092>095-
103>107-118>123-134-135-146>148-162.

&&

$$